2011 Ford 400 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: It all comes down to two drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway Sunday, as only Carl Edwards, the current Sprint Cup Series points leader, and Tony Stewart, trailing Edwards by three points, are still in the running for the Cup championship.
Race: Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Date: Sunday, November 20, 2011
Time: 3:15 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 3:00 PM EST on ESPN
But, there will still be a full field of cars battling for the race win, which could help a team other than the No. 99 or No. 14 build momentum heading into the off-season.
Homestead is one of just a few tracks that the circuit makes one stop a year at rather than two.
Many people are viewing this title battle as a fight between manufacturers – Edwards driving a Ford and Stewart a Chevy – so it’s worth noting that Ford drivers have eight wins here compared to just one for Chevy (Bobby Labonte in 2003).
The only non-Ford driver to win at Homestead in the past seven years was Denny Hamlin in a Toyota in 2009. There have only been 12 Cup races at Homestead in total – one per year, each in November, since 1999.
• Safe Bet: (odds of 10/1 or less)
Carl Edwards (5/2): Edwards has dominated this track in recent years, winning two of the last three races and scoring six straight top-10 finishes. He has the best average finish among active drivers at Homestead (5.7) and won this race last year after starting second.
Edwards led 190 of 267 laps in this race last year. [ad-8757089]
• Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
Greg Biffle (18/1): Championship contenders Edwards and Stewart each have two wins at Homestead, but Greg Biffle has three, and they were consecutive in ’04, ’05 and ’06. Biffle finished 10th in this race last year and qualified 8th for Sunday’s race.
This is Biffle’s last chance to score a victory in 2011, after winning two races in 2010.
• Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)
AJ Allmendinger (75/1): These are truly long odds, but Allmendinger has been strong in all three of his Homestead starts, finishing 11th, 10th and 5th. As noted, this is a track that favors Fords. AJ will start 12th on Sunday. He finished 6th last week in Phoenix.
Summary:
Both Cup practices scheduled for Friday were rained out and rain also cut Friday night’s Camping World Truck Series race short. There is a 30% chance of rain on Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr. led the first practice Saturday and Carl Edwards was fastest in Happy Hour.
As noted above, Edwards starts on the pole Sunday, while Tony Stewart starts 15th.
Both drivers have two previous wins at this track, though Carl’s wins were much more recent.
